Want to know the chance of your marriage succeeding? Ask a mathematician.
At least this particular mathematician. Oxford University Professor James Murray has constructed a mathematical model that predicts with greater than 94 percent accuracy whether your relationship will make it or break up. The only reason his model isn't 100 percent successful, he said, is because some couples gave up on the marriage rather than working on it.
Murray started his experiment by giving couples an assignment: discuss for 15 minutes an issue that has been a bone of contention for some time in your relationship. One issue, all 15 minutes. Murray and his Oxford team just watched and took notes and gave spouses positive and negative points for what was said and how it was said.
The husband and wife's scores were plotted using a computerized mathematical model, and the point at which the two lines met showed the likelihood for the marriage to last.
"I am still absolutely amazed that human emotions can be put into a mathematical model and that a prediction can be made," he said.
"What astonished me was that a discussion, sometimes highly charged and emotional, could so easily and usefully be encapsulated in what is actually a simple model of a couple's interaction.
It's not really the math, Murray admits, but how the couple interacts with each other. The math just makes it easier to see what will be the end result. He contends that there are only five general types of ways couples interact with each other.
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Validating: Calm and intimate, they support each other and value companionship over individuality.
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Avoiders: In an effort to steer clear of conflict, they only respond in the positive.
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Volatile: Romantic and passionate, arguments tend to be heated. Tend more to be unhappy.
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Hostile: One spouse doesn't want to talk, and the other agrees, so there's no communication.
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Hostile-Detached: One spouse wants to argue, while the other avoids the issue.
Murray said one of the best predictors of success is when the couple prefers companionship. One of the most consistent factors in marriage failure is when one spouse is consistently negative.
Of course, just because a couple falls into a certain pattern doesn't mean they have to stay stuck there. Recognizing problem areas and learning how to deal with them is a key to turning a potentially disastrous relationship into a very healthy one. And because each spouse has to grow to overcome the negative tendencies, couples who work on their differences may wind up having the best marriages of all.
Some outstanding resources for dealing with conflict in marriage:
Fighting Fair - Article by Tim and Joy Downs, excerpted from their book, Fight Fair.
Five Steps for Resolving Conflict in Marriage- article by Dennis and Barbara Rainey, excerpted from their book, Staying Close.
The Peacemaker: A Biblical Guide to Resolving Personal Conflict - Book by Ken Sande
Weekend to Remember - Marriage conference covering conflict, communication, intimacy and other topics. Held throughout the United States.